Impact of gasoline crisis on electric vehicle market
Сurrent gllobal fuel crisis naturally affects sales structure of passenger cars.
What is current market for electric vehicles? In 2025, global sales of electic vehicles amounted to 20.7 million. Of these, 12.9 million were sold in China (including hybrids vehickes). China's share was 62%. List of the remaining key markets includes EU with UK and and Norway, and USA.
The key manufacturers of electric vehicles are of China. BYD is the global leader in terms of the year (2.3 million compared to Tesla’s 1.6 million).
Electric vehicles are on average 1.5 times more expensive compared to similar vehicles with gasoline engine. Therefore, national subsidies for electric vehicles is one of the key factors for buyers when making decisions which car to buy.
In China, subsidies have been gradually reduced due to matured nature of produced model, large scale of production and high competition among domestic manufacturersI It led to lower marker prices through "invisible hand of the market." In EU, UK, and especially in Norway, electric vehicle markets are largely supported by aggressive pressure on buyers and owners of cars with internal combustion engine and cross-subsidies from them and oil and gas sector to purchase and ownership of electric vehicles. Although there have been some relaxations in domestic regulatory strictness since 2025. In USA, 7.5 kUSD cash incentive for purchasing an electric vehicle was expired in the end of September.
In China, electric and hybrid vehicles accounted for 49% of total number of passenger cars sold. This sales structure has remained stable for two years, indicating that the sales ceiling has been reached. By the end of 2025, fleet of passenger cars in China reached 366 million. Of these, electric and hybrid vehicles accounted for 44.0 million (30.2 million electric vehicles and 13.8 million hybrid vehicles). With 50% share of electric and hybrid vehicles in the sales of new cars, the share of internal combustion engine vehicles in the fleet of active vehicles will decrease rapidly and approach an asymptote of 50%.
Therefore, even without current fuel crisis, we can expect an increase in the share of electric vehicles on Chinese roads and a corresponding decrease in the demand for gasoline. Demand for gasoline in China has already started to decline at a rate of 2% per year, and this decline will only accelerate in the future. But the market for cars with gasoline engines will continue to exist, even if it decreases by half from its peak volume.
Chinese authorities are trying to reduce impact of the fuel crisis on domestic consumers, primarily through foreign trade measures such as a ban on export of gasoline and other clean petroleum products and decrease in demand for imported crude oil. This will reduce the price shock on the domestic fuel market (but will shock motor fuel markets in Southeast Asia) and could potentially change the sales structure of passenger cars in favor of electric vehicles. In addition, price of electricity is dependent on import of LNG to China, which has also increased in price, as has oil.
In energy-dependent markets of most EU countries and UK, every kind of energy is becoming more expensive, including gasoline, natural gas, and electricity. Therefore, the price shock in the fuel market will be felt equally by owners of all types of vehicles. As a result, this fuel crisis is expected to lead to decrease in sales of all types of vehicles.
The only exceptions are Norway, as well as Sweden and Finland to a lesser extent. Price of electricity in these countries is determined by renewable energy sources (hydroelectric power plants in Norway, wind farms in Sweden and Finland), therefore, price gap between ownership of a car with an internal combustion engine and an electric car will increase. But the electric car market in Norway is already as saturated as possible (in 2025, 96% of new passenger cars sold were electric vehicles) and there is simply nowhere for it to grow.
Sales of electric vehicles in USA are stagnating due to reversal of regulatory policy after Trump came to power away from renewable energy to oil and gas, as well as technical stagnation at Tesla. Sales have been declining in recent months. The fuel crisis could temporarily slow down or even reverse this trend for a while.
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