Mercuriy, Luch and Kosmos are coming to rescue
Seasonal lengthening of logistics routes for exporting Russian LNG from Baltic and Yamal LNG plants in January-June due to freezing of Arctic Ocean was amplified by attack by Ukraine, Western Libya, and UK on Arctic Metagaz LNG carrier in Mediterranean sea on 03.03.2026 . This has significantly increased required ton-kilometers for delivering LNG to buyers.
On 25.04.2026 EU's self-imposed ban on import of Yamal LNG (the last Russian LNG plant in European part of the country that has not been blacklisted by the West) will take effect. However, it is likely that Yamal LNG will be included in Western blacklists in the near future. This will de facto make China the only market for Yamal LNG, and it will also remove TotalEnergies (a shareholder of Yamal LNG and a buyer of LNG from the plant) and Greek shipping companies (Dinagas and others) from the logistics of Yamal LNG to China.
Taken together, this creates a perfect storm for Russian LNG exports as early as in Q2 2026.
Novatek and SKK Zvezda are systematically overcoming shortage of ice-class LNG carriers. It's expensive. It's time-consuming. But there's no other option.
However, EU's self-imposed ban and the increased terrorist threat in Mediterranean sea are increasing immediate need for non-ice-class LNG carriers. These carriers are not unique and are readily available on secondary market.
In January, structures likely associated with Novatek bought 4 LNG carriers from Omani Asiad Shipping (including Mercuriy - 9326689, Kosmos - 9300817, and Luch - 9317315). In April, the LNG carriers switched to Russian flag and headed for loading at western border of Northern Sea Route.
These vessels will likely load LNG from Saam floating storage facility (or via STS nearby) and deliver it to final buyers in China and other countries.
Arctic summer and opening of eastern route of NSR in July will provide a temporary relief for Russian LNG plants until mid-December.
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