Gas industry of China
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China has become the world's largest importer of LNG, recently displacing the former long-term leader, Japan, on this pedestal. The average monthly LNG imports to China range from 5-7 million tons of LNG per month. The volume of monthly imports depends on domestic demand for electric and thermal energy, spot and long-term LNG prices, and the price and volume of alternative supplies (pipeline gas, thermal coal, and Chinese hydroelectric power plants).
Australia is the largest supplier of LNG to China over the past 12 months - 23.5 million tons. Qatar is number two, with an indicator of 16.2 million tons. Malaysia is number three, with 6.5 million tons. Russia ranks fourth in the ranking of LNG importers to China, however, it is the leading supplier of gas, if all transportation methods are taken into account - the equivalent of 27.1 million tons of LNG.
China is the second largest shipbuilder of LNG carriers after South Korea right now. Its share in the portfolio of gas carriers under construction is continuously growing and currently stands at about 25%.
China's Natural Gas Market
The demand for natural gas in China is growing rapidly. However, coal still dominates China's energy and heat supply. Natural gas, along with renewable energy sources and nuclear energy, are types of energy that should not only cover the rapid growth of China's demand for energy, but also reduce the share of thermal coal in the energy mix.
China's domestic gas production in 2023 amounted to 230 billion cubic meters of gas. The annual increase is 10 billion cubic meters.
The shortage of domestic gas is covered by pipeline supplies from neighboring countries and the import of LNG and its subsequent regasification.
China imports pipeline gas from Russia (Power of Siberia), Central Asia (Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan) and Southeast Asia (Myanmar).
The volume of pipeline gas imports from Russia via the Power of Siberia in 2023 amounted to 22.7 billion cubic meters. It is expected that in 2025, supplies from the Power of Siberia will reach their design capacity of 38 billion cubic meters per year. The construction of the new Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline is being discussed. For Russia, this is an opportunity to compensate for the decline in natural gas exports to Europe, as well as create conditions for gasification in Eastern Siberia, where coal-fired generation still dominates.
Pipeline gas supplies from Central Asian countries have been limited in recent years during the winter heating period in these countries. The growth of the population and economy in these countries has led to the fact that domestic demand takes away all production in the winter months, leaving no gas for export to China. A gas union between Russia and Central Asian countries is currently being discussed, which could benefit all three countries.:
Russia - additional volumes of gas exports from the fields of the European part (direct compensation for the decline in gas exports to Europe).
Central Asian countries - revenue from gas transit through existing gas pipelines (consider direct revenues to the budget with low operating costs to receive them), as well as the ability to cover deficits during peak periods of domestic gas demand (freezes).
China is an additional source of gas.
Regasification terminals
China is rapidly catching up with Japan and South Korea in terms of regasification capacity. There are currently 40 terminals in China with a total capacity of 133 million tons of LNG per year.
China continues to dominate the regasification infrastructure being introduced. China continues to rely on its gas infrastructure. China is flexible in LNG purchases and does not critically depend on it — balancing is carried out by pipeline gas, coal, and hydroelectric power plants. Currently, there are 33 operating regasification terminals in China with a total capacity of 130 million tons of LNG per year.
The year 2023 was a shock year in terms of the volume of regasification terminal commissioning - a record for China and the world of 22.7 million tons of LNG per year regasification capacity. But in 2024, much larger volumes are expected to be commissioned - 42.9 million tons of LNG capacity. Some projects are likely to move to the right, but a record year is still expected in terms of LNG infrastructure commissioning. Another 34.6 million tons of LNG capacity is expected to be commissioned in 2025.
LNG imports
Structure of importers
Guangdong
Guangdong Province is one of the key countries in terms of LNG consumption. This is influenced by the developed industrial sector, high gas generation (50 GW of installed capacity of gas-fired thermal power plants) and the relative distance from imported pipeline gas.
The US trade war against China is introducing strong volatility in energy consumption and, as a result, LNG imports to this province.
The structure of electricity generation in Guangdong Province is significantly influenced by the generation of hydroelectric power plants.
The volume of imports is also affected by the change in the tariff grid for electricity generated by the province's gas-fired thermal power plants in 2025.
Taiwan
The volume of LNG imports to Taiwan Province is strongly influenced by the volume of generation of Taiwanese nuclear power plants. Reducing their output increases the demand for LNG and thermal coal from thermal power plants.
The structure of exporters
Australia is the largest supplier of LNG to China in the last 12 months as of 01/08/2025 - 23.5 million tons.
Qatar is number two with an indicator of 16.2 million tons.
Malaysia is number three, with 6.5 million tons.
Russia ranks fourth in the ranking of LNG importers to China - 4.6 million tons. Russia also supplies significant volumes of gas through the Power of Siberia main gas pipeline. In 2024, 31 billion cubic meters of pipeline gas (equivalent to 22.5 million tons of LNG) were delivered. Thus, Russia is the leading supplier of gas, if all transportation methods are taken into account.
In the table “Monthly dynamics of LNG imports to China with country details“ statistical data on unloading of gas carriers in Chinese ports with aggregation for a calendar month, the supplier country and all regasification terminals in China are presented. The data is from August 2022. 01.MM.YYYY - means deliveries for the entire calendar month starting on that day. Deliveries for the current month are shown in cumulative totals from the first day of the month to the current date. The delay in receiving data is up to one day. The data is updated automatically.
LNG carriers discharge
The table “Unloading of gas carriers at China's regasification terminals“ shows operational data on unloading of gas carriers in Chinese ports over the past 10 days. Import volumes are given in metric tons. The data is updated automatically.
Potential trade war between China and Australia
LNG imports from Australia, the largest supplier to China, were currently interrupted in 2021-2022 due to the Australia-China trade war. There was a similar suspension for purchases of other Australian goods, including coal. In 2024, Australia became a key supplier of LNG to China - 23 million tons, with a market share of 35%.
At the same time, Australia is one of the key participants in the US anti-Chinese military alliances in Asia, including:
AUKUS (USA, UK, Australia),
Quad (USA, Australia, India, Japan),
Five eyes (USA, UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand).
ANZUS (USA, Australia, New Zealand),
Australia's bilateral treaty with Papua New Guinea.
The numerous military alliances against China and the intensification of Australia's cooperation with other countries within the framework of these alliances make the risk of a repeat of the Australia-China trade war and the suspension of all Australian LNG exports to China extremely high. The most likely replacement LNG resource for China will be all Russian LNG projects.
The Second US-China Trade War
Background
LNG imports from the United States are a direct consequence of the US-China trade war in 2019-2020. The United States has forced China to reduce its bilateral trade monetary deficit by purchasing LNG and petroleum products from the United States.
In early January 2025, the United States launched a preliminary attack on China's LNG industry, including the China Ocean Shipping Corporation, the China National Offshore Petroleum Corporation, and the Chinese state-owned Shipbuilding Corporation. This attack will mark the expected start of a new US trade war against China in the LNG industry in an attempt to save from an imminent default on government debt (3.6 quadrillion rubles as of 01/08/2025).
Pressure on Chinese companies operating in the LNG industry
China Ocean Shipping Corporation is the world's leading shipping company. Its fleet of LNG gas carriers includes 45 operating gas carriers and 40 gas carriers under construction. The total capacity of the company's current and prospective fleet of gas carriers is 6.5 million tons of LNG. This corresponds to the volume of gas carriers commissioned worldwide this year and is equivalent to 12% of the current fleet of gas carriers in the world. In 2024, the gas carriers of the China Ocean Shipping Corporation serviced LNG shipments for Petro China, China Petrochemical Corporation, China YEnEn Energy Assets, and Katarenergy..
It is the Chinese National Offshore Oil Corporation that imports half of all LNG imports to China. It owns 6 regasification terminals in China with a total transshipment capacity of 32 million tons of LNG per year. The China National Offshore Petroleum Corporation has two existing contracts with Venture Global LNG, an LNG producer from the United States, with a total volume of 2.5 million tons per year.
Chinese shipbuilders are key suppliers of LNG carriers to the global market, with a current share of about 60% of gas carriers under construction and ordered. The Chinese state-owned Shipbuilding Corporation, including its subsidiary Hudong-Zhonghua, is the largest shipbuilder of LNG gas carriers right now.
Mutual duties on goods
On February 4, 2025, China introduced countermeasures against imports of LNG and other goods from the United States as part of a mirror response to tariffs imposed by the new Trump administration on all Chinese exports to the United States. The tariff on LNG imports from the United States to China will be 15%. The volume of shipments for the last 365 days as of 02/04/2025 amounted to 3.8 million tons. This volume is not critical for either side.
Obviously, the tariff will stop LNG shipments from the United States to China and lead to a mutual redirection of flows, at least spot supplies. At the moment, long-term contracts for the supply of LNG are in force.:
Venture Global Calcasieu Pass LNG with the Chinese Petrochemical Corporation for 1 million tons per year.
Venture Global Calcasieu Pass LNG Company with China National Offshore Oil Corporation for 500 thousand tons per year.
The company "Energy of Chenier” with the Gas company “YEnEn" for 900 thousand tons per year.
The company "Energy of Shenyor" with the Chinese National Petroleum Corporation for 900 thousand tons per year.
Despite the high LNG prices, there is an opportunity on the market right now to start LNG supplies from Arctic LNG-2 in excess of LNG supplies from the United States, if there is the appropriate political will of the Chinese supreme leadership.
In early May 2025, the United States and China agreed to reduce mutual duties to 10%.
In early April 2025, after the Trump administration imposed new tariffs on almost all countries, the Ministry of Economic Affairs of Taiwan Province of China contacted the Trump Administration with a proposal to increase LNG purchases from the United States by two to three times in an attempt to reduce or eliminate the tariffs imposed. In 2024, Taiwan imported 2 million tons of LNG from the United States, which accounted for 10% of Taiwan's LNG purchase portfolio.
Mutual port charges
In the first quarter, the United States imposed an additional duty on the port entry of LNG gas carriers and other vessels built in China and/or flying the Chinese flag. In April, the approach to collecting this duty on LNG carriers and a number of other vessels was changed. The key change concerning the LNG industry is that the duty on LNG carriers associated with China will be effective only from 10/14/2028.
The potential amount of the duty deferred until 2028 is estimated at 140 US dollars (the amount of duty since April 2028) per net ton of LNG tanker built in China. The fee limit is for more than 5 port calls per year for each vessel. This is equivalent to 375 million rubles for the port entry of a standard gas carrier with a lifting capacity of 73 thousand tons.
Starting in 2028, this amount will be applied to both Chinese carriers and carriers from other countries. Presumably, there will be some exceptions for LNG carriers flying the flag of the United States or owned by companies from the United States. In addition, it is reported that companies may receive a refund of duties in the future if they order LNG tankers from US shipyards. As of 2025, the United States does not produce LNG carriers.
In addition, starting from 04/17/2029, the share of LNG exports from the United States that must be exported on gas carriers built in the United States, flying the U.S. flag and operated by U.S. companies, will gradually increase from 1% in the first two years to 15% by April 2047. These restrictions will gradually increase over the course of 22 years.
5% of the current fleet of LNG carriers was built in China. This will have an even greater impact on the construction of future gas carriers - about 25% of the gas carriers currently under construction will be built in China.
As of 07/01/2025, 42 gas carriers are flying the flags of China, including 35 gas carriers flying the flag of Hong Kong.
In October 2025, China imposed retaliatory additional port charges on ships owned by both U.S. individuals and operated by organizations where U.S. citizens directly or indirectly own at least 25% of the shares. This measure applies to both United States-flagged carriers and ships built in that country. These port charges began to be collected starting from 10/14/2025.Fees will initially be charged at a rate of 400 yuan (4.5 thousand rubles) per net registered ton. This is equivalent to 152 million rubles for the port entry of a standard gas carrier with a lifting capacity of 73 thousand tons. However, from April 17, 2026, the fee will be increased to 640 yuan (7.3 thousand rubles), and from April 17, 2027 - to 880 yuan (10.0 thousand rubles), and to 1,120 yuan (12.7 thousand rubles) from April 17, 2028.
The consequences for the gas carrier market depend on the overall outcome of the US-Russia and US-China confrontations and the effectiveness of Russia-China cooperation. It is difficult to predict these consequences, but we will try in the form of extreme scenarios.:
Scenario of “Splitting the LNG trade into parts“. In this scenario, China, losing the US market for the direct supply of its products of a wide range, integrates more with friendly and neutral countries (USA, Africa, Latin America). In terms of LNG, this means China abandoning LNG supplies from the United States and refocusing on LNG supplies from Russia while maximizing pipeline gas flows from Central Asia and Myanmar. In this case, Russian gas companies find both a sales market and solve all problems with the payment and maintenance of the fleet of gas carriers. Technologically and commercially, there are all the conditions for this right now. The United States is increasing LNG supplies to the EU, Japan, South Korea and the UK.
Scenario “US victory in the trade war". In this scenario, China increases LNG imports from the United States, similar to the results of Trump's first trade war against China. LNG imports from Russia are likely to decrease, as well as the provision of technical services and equipment supplies by Chinese companies to Russian contractors in the LNG industry. The LNG market remains unified, but without Russia's participation in it.
Shipbuilding
China is the second largest shipbuilder of LNG carriers after South Korea right now. Its share in the portfolio of gas carriers under construction is continuously growing and currently stands at about 25%.
Detailed data on China's LNG infrastructure, its owners, LNG purchase contracts, and LNG import volumes are available in real time at the Seala AI Terminal by subscription. Please contact lab@seala.ru for connection issues.
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