Russian LNG Export
Summary
Russia is the fourth largest exporter of LNG to the world market. Key Russian LNG projects are Sakhalin-2 and Yamal LNG.
After Ukraine’s blowing the Nord Streams and political stoppage of Yamal pipeline by Poland LNG is the key for sustainable Russian gas export.
Key company of Russian LNG industry is Novatek. Future growth of Novatek now depends on the firm’s capability to establish full scale domestic production for LNG equipment, including liquefaction components and ice-class LNG carriers.
LNG Plants
Operating LNG plants in Russia:
Yamal LNG of Novatek (port of shipment - Sabetta)
Sakhalin-2 (port of shipment - Prigorodnoye)
medium-tonnage plant “Gazprom LNG Portovaya” (port of shipment - Portovaya).
medium-tonnage plant “Cryogaz-Vysotsk” (port of shipment - Vysotsk)
LNG Loadings
The table “Monthly LNG loadings volumes at Russian ports“ provides statistics on the loading of gas carriers in Russian ports with aggregation for a calendar month. The data is available from October 2022. 01.MM.YYYY - means shipments for the entire calendar month starting on that day. Shipments for the current month are indicated by cumulative total from the first day of the month to the current date. The delay in receiving data is up to one day. The data is updated automatically.
The table “Loading of gas carriers in the ports of Russia“ provides the data on loading of gas carriers at gas-liquefying plants in Russia, without detailing by lines. The data has been provided since 13.07.2022 and is updated automatically.
Shippers
The graph “Carriers of Russian LNG" shows statistics on the volume of LNG shipments from Russian ports with details by shipping managers. The data is given for last 365 days and is updated automatically.
LNG shipments in Q1 2024 were at the average level of the previous winter quarters. There was no decrease in LNG shipments due to pressure from the United States and other countries, however, this pressure led to the withdrawal of the first line of the Arctic LNG-2 LNG plant immediately after its technical launch. The growth of shipments from new facilities is extremely difficult. The formation of a domestic fleet of LNG gas carriers has been initiated, however, this process will take a year before launching the first domestic gas carrier and a decade to form a full-fledged domestic fleet necessary for the export of LNG produced. There is a possibility that until then it will be possible to form a temporary fleet, similar to the oil fleet formed in 2022-2023. At the moment, 7 Ark 7 ice class tankers are under construction:
Built by the South Korean company Hana Okean and 4 gas carriers have already passed sea trials: Pyotr Kapitsa, Lev Landau and Zhores Alferov (all named after legendary professors of Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology) and Ilya Mechnikov. Deliveries of these gas carriers are delayed due to US political pressure on South Korea. The owner and operator of the first three gas carriers is Sovcomflot, and the fourth is Mitsui USK Line.
Two gas carriers are under construction at the shipyards of the South Korean Samsung Heavy Industries: Alexey Kosygin and Pyotr Stolypin. The assessment of the readiness dates of gas carriers is the summer of 2025. The owner and operator of these gas carriers is Smart LNG, a joint venture between Sovcomflot and Novatek.
Export destinations
The table “Monthly LNG loadings volumes at Russian ports and destination countries" provides statistics on importing countries of Russian LNG with aggregation dates by calendar months. The date of gas carrier loading is used, the data on importing country is available upon discharge. The data has been provided since 01.09.2022 and is updated automatically. Data for the current month is shown as a cumulative total.
EU countries (France, Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands) and East Asia (China, Japan, South Korea) dominate the current export portfolio of Russian LNG. The supply structure changes every month and depends on the current imbalances of the national gas balances.
Most of the export portfolio is exposed to the risk of sanctions from importing countries, which is potentially an extremely strong risk for Novatek and especially Gazprom. However, the continuing projected shortage of LNG until 2025 creates moderate optimism that sanctions will not be imposed until then.
Notes:
Advanced real-time analytics for LNG trade are available by subscription (please contact us via info@seala.ai).
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