Gas market of EU and UK
Summary
Most of EU countries with access to the sea, as well as UK, have operating regasification terminals. This list of countries includes Belgium, Croatia, Great Britain, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal and Spain. European countries have formed an integrated natural gas market. The existing bottlenecks of the European main gas pipeline system occasionally affect the connectivity of the market, but in the medium term, these restrictions are not material - the market of these countries functions as a single mechanism.
Europe collectively is one of the largest importers of LNG. Monthly LNG import volumes are volatile and are in the range of 7 - 13 million tons of LNG per month. At the same time, Europe is forced to perform a balancing function in the global LNG market. Demand for LNG in Europe has become a key element of pricing both in the global LNG market and in the European gas and power markets.
USA is currently the number one LNG supplier by a large margin. Russia and Qatar are placed second and third respectively.
Consumption
Europe's natural gas market is one of the largest in the world, along with the United States, China and Russia.
Europe collectively has the largest gas storage facilities in the world and is de facto (formerly along with Russia) the global balancer of the LNG market and largely determines the prices of spot LNG supplies. The gas reserve in Europe's UGS facilities is one of the most important fundamental indicators of the global gas market.
The demand for gas is largely determined by temperature. Heating accounts for the vast majority of consumption during the cold season, including increased demand for electricity from gas-fired thermal power plants. There is a high seasonality in gas consumption - in the winter months, consumption is 3-4 times higher than demand in the summer months. In recent years, after the active commissioning of wind farms, wind conditions have also actively begun to affect short-term gas demand and, as a result, prices for the day ahead on gas exchanges (TTF, CEGH and others).
Industrial gas demand in Europe has been stagnating since 2022. European manufacturers in energy-intensive industries (starting with chemicals) cannot withstand price competition from competitors in the USA, China, Russia and the Middle East. European companies are actively shifting production to countries with low energy costs, as well as transforming from producers to research and financial companies in their industries.
Previously, domestic gas demand in Europe was covered by its own production. However, due to the active growth in gas demand and the development of the largest deposits (primarily Groningen in the Netherlands), the bulk of gas demand is covered by imports.
Pipeline gas imports
Russia
Russia was the key supplier of gas to EU until 2022. Pipeline supplies reached 400-450 mcm per day. After the blowing up of Nord Streams by US and Ukraine and Poland's blocking of supplies via the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline, supply volumes decreased fivefold to 80 mcm per day.
No one planned to hide responsibility for the explosion of Nord streams at the time of the explosions
As expected, Ukraine and the United States have completely stopped the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine to the EU since January 2025. Since 01.01.2025, the European market has lost pipeline gas in the amount of 41 million cubic meters of gas per day, which created additional demand for LNG from the EU in the amount of 11 million tons of LNG from the United States per year (slightly less than 3% from the global LNG trade).
For Russophobic reasons, the European Commission requires all EU countries, as well as states planning to join EU, to start terminating gas contracts with Gazprom Export. In Q2 2025, the European Commission presented the following action plan:
Self-restriction of EU countries regarding the conclusion of new contracts for the supply of pipeline gas and LNG starting from 01.01.2026.
“Termination” of short-term contracts by 06/17/2026.
The “termination“ of long-term contracts by 01.01.2028 for all EU countries except Slovakia and Hungary.
As of 07/09/2026, this plan has not been agreed.
Since January 2025, Turkish Stream has been the only Russian gas supply channel to EU. In H1 2025, Russian supplies to EU via this route (including re-export of gas outside the EU) amounted to 43 mcm per day, which is 10% of 2021 import volumes. Of these, 21 mcm per day goes to Hungary, 7 - to Slovakia, 15 - to Serbia (including re-exports to non-EU Balkan countries), and 1 - to Greece. Some of physical molecules of Russian gas are likely to enter Ukraine from Hungary and Slovakia as part of Ukraine's commercial imports of European gas.
According to the terms of the agreements, European companies must pay fines for non-sampling of gas and even more so for its rupture. The European Commission does not want to pay penalties and is looking for ways to sign some kind of paper, according to which unilateral termination of international treaties without penalties stipulated in the treaties will be considered “legitimate” in the EU. The pocket Stockholm Arbitration Court is likely to be involved in this process. In his practice, there is already a precedent for “legitimizing” the termination of a similar contract between Ukraine and Russia without paying a corresponding fine to Ukraine. This process will finally disconnect the European gas market from supplies from Russia, which will bring additional losses to European companies and residents and lead to continued stagnation of energy-intensive industries in the EU. Gazprom will suffer even greater damage. It was gas sales to the EU that ensured the low level of domestic gas tariffs, as well as Gazprom's generous social program.
Greece
As of 2025, there is a gas supply agreement between Gazprom export and state-owned DEPA (ΔΕΠΑ).
The current agreement with DEPA was signed in January 2022 and is valid until the end of 2026. Previously, there were other agreements between the same parties. The annual volume of supplies under the current agreement is 2 bcm (5 mcm per day). The agreement contains a ”take or pay" condition. The formula price has a basic reference to the TTF index (80% of the price) and oil quotations (20%). In March 2024, DEPA filed to the Stockholm Arbitration Court a standard retrospective price review with Gazprom Export. In July 2025, the parties reached a pre-trial settlement.
Due to the planned general self-restriction of EU in the supply of Russian gas, it is unlikely that this agreement will be renewed.
Norway
After the self-abandonment of Russian gas and the undermining of Nord Streams by the United States and Ukraine, Norway has become a key supplier of pipeline gas to the EU. By the end of January-February 2024, the volume of supplies amounted to 330 million cubic meters per day according to the results.
Algeria
Algeria is a significant supplier of pipeline gas to the southern EU countries.
Azerbaijan
As of the first half of 2025, Azerbaijan is the number four supplier of pipeline gas to the EU with a market share of 7%. Key consumers of Azerbaijani gas in the EU:
Italy - 60% of the market.
Bulgaria - 50%.
Greece - 18%.
De facto, Azerbaijani gas has replaced Russian gas in these markets.
In July 2025, European countries requested additional supplies from Azerbaijan in the amount of 14 bcm per year (38 mcm per day).
Libya
Libya is a significant supplier of pipeline gas to the southern EU countries.
Pipeline gas re-export
Serbia
As of 2025 Serbia recieve Russian gas through Turkish stream.
Ukraine
Since 2025, the Ukrainian gas market has completed its strategic integration to the EU gas market and has become a part of it.
Ukraine physically imports gas molecules from Europe through Slovakia (the pipeline's capacity is 42 mcm per day), Hungary (10) and Poland (6.2 until 30.06.2025, 12.4 - from 01.07.2025).
Preparation of physical and commercial infrastructure for the import of natural gas through the Trans-Balkan gas Pipeline in reverse mode was finalised in June 2025. New capacity is 3 mcm per day. This gas pipeline was originally built and has historically been used to supply Russian gas to the Balkans. After the launch of the Turkish stream in 2020, supplies moved from the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline to the Turkish stream due to lower level of hostility towards Russia from transit countries and lower transportation costs. As s consequences The Trans-Balkan gas pipeline went down. Ukraine's refusal to transit Russian gas from 01.01.2025 and relatively independent from Brussels governments of Hungary and Slovakia prompted launch of the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline in the opposite direction. Pipeline is filled by regasified US LNG discharged at new Greek Revithoussa terminal.
Key obstacle to the use this gas pipeline by Ukraine remains higher transportation costs - imports through the terminals of Swinoujscie (Poland) and Krk (Croatia) were cheaper. In Q2 2025, European gas transportation operators made a 46% discount for Ukrainian companies, but this still did not make this route commercially attractive compared to alternatives. Therefore, in the near future, this route will remain a reserve for Ukrainian companies and will be used only if the capacity of cheaper routes through Poland, Hungary and Slovakia are fully utilized.
On 01.07.2025, the operators of the gas transmission systems of Ukraine and Poland (OGTSU and Gaz-Systems, respectively) extended the agreement on guaranteed for Ukraine capacity until 30.09.2026. Moreover guaranteed capacity increased to 12.4 mcm per day (4.5 bcm per year). The Polish route de facto receives regasified LNG from the USA at the Swinoujscie terminal. Polish Orlen is a commercial intermediary, buying LNG from USA on its own account and reselling it to Ukraine (DTEK and Naftogaz).
The planned volume of gas re-export by the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine in 2025 is 4.5-8.0 bcm (about 16 mcm per day).
Transnistria and Moldova
MOL company from Hungary is ready to sign a contract with Moldovagaz as part of gas supplies to Transnistria. The European Commission is ready to allocate 30 million euros to Moldova as emergency financial assistance, which Chisinau can use to purchase gas for Transnistria (this money may be enough to maintain heat and electricity in the homes of 350,000 Transnistrian residents until February 10, 2025). The EU is also preparing a large package of support in the energy sector for Moldova itself. On January 27, 2025, Moldova approved the transfer of 3 million cubic meters of gas to Pridnestrovie. In response to financial assistance from the EU, Transnistria will supply energy to Moldova at pre-crisis cost. Moldova and Transnistria introduced an emergency regime at the end of December 2024, when it became clear that Chisinau could not reach an agreement with Gazprom on the settlement of historical debts. Russian gas has stopped flowing to the Moldovan HPP since January 2025, while Ukraine has announced that it will no longer transport gas from the Russian Federation on its territory.
Gas reserves in UGS
Gas reserves are a key indicator of the balance of the European gas market. The compliance of gas reserves with the target level determines the necessary rates of their replenishment.
Since June 2022, the target level of gas reserves for the EU has been determined for the most part by the European Commission using the gas storage regulation. Some countries also have local requirements set by local governments.
The practice of conserving reserves in Europe has undergone major changes in recent years. Due to lower volumes of constant flowing pipeline gas, ensuring gas demand through UGS plays an increasingly important role in winter. Seasonality is becoming more and more evident in this market. The accumulated reserves at the beginning of the gas winter are getting bigger and bigger every year, however, the rate of gas consumption during the gas winter is also breaking records every year.
According to the current version of the regulations as of 02.07.2025, the following basic standards apply for target reserves: the peak level of active gas reserves in the period from October 1 to December 1 should be 90% of the total storage capacity. There is also a threshold of 5% of the allowable deviation from the target. As of 07/02/2025, this corresponds to 92.7 billion cubic meters in the EU UGS (85% of the active capacity of 109 bcm) plus 1.5 bcm in UK UGS (the full active capacity of these UGS). In total, 94 bcm in the period from the 274th to the 335th day of the year.
In January 2025, Bulgartransgaz began implementing a phased expansion of the Chiren UGS (the only gas storage facility in Bulgaria). The project aims to increase the active gas capacity to 1 billion cubic meters from the current 550 million cubic meters. The project is of strategic importance for improving energy security and increasing the competitiveness and liquidity of the natural gas market in Bulgaria and the Southeastern European region. The estimated cost of the expansion is 5.7 billion rubles. The project is funded by the European Executive Agency for Climate, Infrastructure and Environment (CINEA). The project also aims to increase the daily extraction capacity to 10 million m3 per day and the injection capacity to 8 million m3/day from the current maximum daily extraction capacity of 3.82 million m3/day and the maximum daily injection capacity of 3.2 million m3/day.
The required replenishment rates determine the LNG import plan. Since 2022, LNG has been the balancing resource of the European gas market and has replaced Gazprom in this regard.
Regasification terminals
As of 02.07.2025, there are 41 regas terminals in the EU and the UK with a combined regasification capacity of 210 MTPA, which is equivalent to 17.5 million tons per month.
Germany
The current capacity of the regasification terminals in Germany is 18.8 million tons per year, which is equivalent to 1.6 million tons per month. At the same time, the maximum volume of LNG imports was reached in June 2025 - 753 thousand tons (utilization rate of 48%). Germany is facing an oversupply of regasification capacity. At the same time, taking into account the fact that these are PRGUS, they are quite expensive for the country.
On 05/16/2025, the second Excelsior plant (9239616) began operating in the German port of Wilhelmshaven. It is planned that 1.9 billion cubic meters of gas will be delivered through this terminal in 2025. The plan for 2026-2027 is 4.6 billion cubic meters per year.
The first PSU in Wilhelmshaven - Hoegh Esperanza (9780354) started operating in December 2022. All the LNG supplied to the terminal is naturally from the USA.
At the same time, Egypt leased one of the idle German gas stations currently located in the port of Sassnitz (formerly Mukran).
Croatia
The operator of Croatia's gas transportation system, Plinacro, has received 54.4 billion rubles (533 million euros) from the EU's Economic Recovery and Sustainability Plan for Croatia in spring 2024 for the construction of four gas pipelines that will transport gas from the LNG terminal on the island of Krk to Slovenia, Hungary and other Southeastern European countries. The Croatian government has now declared this ancillary infrastructure a strategic investment project, with a total cost currently of 54.5 billion rubles (534 million euros).
The project includes the main gas pipeline system in the Omisalj-Zlobin, Zlobin-Bosilevo-Sisak-Kozarac and Kozarac-Slobodnica sections, as well as the system of intercontinental gas pipelines with Slovenia in the Luchko-Zabok-Rogatec section.
The 58 km long Zlobin–Bosilevo gas pipeline will increase gas transportation from the existing LNG terminal to Croatia, Slovenia and Hungary to a capacity of about 3.5 billion cubic meters per year. Its construction is scheduled to be completed in the first quarter of 2025.
Work will also begin soon on the 36-kilometer Zabok-Luchko pipeline, which will increase the capacity of the pipeline towards Slovenia from the current 0.26 to 1.5 billion cubic meters. The planned completion is in 15 months from the start of work.
As for the third main gas pipeline, the 21-kilometer Kozarats-Sisak pipeline, the public procurement process is underway, as well as preparatory measures for a public tender for the Bosilevo-Sisak pipeline, which will cover 101 kilometers. The new routes will increase the capacity of the LNG terminal from the current 2.9 billion cubic meters to 6.1 billion cubic meters and increase transport capacity to neighboring countries from 0.26 to 1.5 billion cubic meters to Slovenia and from 1.7 to 3.5 billion cubic meters to Hungary.
According to experts, the construction of these four gas pipelines with a total length of 216 kilometers will make Croatia a regional energy center and ensure its energy independence, as well as the continuity and security of natural gas supplies to households and businesses in Croatia and other European Union countries.
LNG import
Discharges
The table “Details of LNG Carriers Discharge in Europe during last 30 days“ provides the data on unloading of gas carriers in EU and UK ports. The data is provided since 13.07.2022 and is updated automatically. Import volumes are given in metric tons.
External LNG imports to EU and UK, excluding regional cabotage, totaled 28.0 million tons in Q2 2025, which is equivalent to an average of 9.3 million tons per month. Thus, in the second quarter, 75% of LNG imports were pumped into UGS facilities in preparation for the gas winter.
The table “Monthly discharge volumes and destination countries for LNG coming from outside Europe“ presents statistics on the unloading of gas carriers at regasification terminals and ports in the EU and the UK, with the exception of gas carriers loaded in the EU and the UK, with aggregation per calendar month for the recipient country and all its regasification terminals. The data is from August 2022. Date 01.MM.YYYY means deliveries for the entire calendar month, starting that day. Deliveries for the current month are indicated as a cumulative total from the first day of the month to the current date. The delay in receiving data is up to one day. The data is updated automatically.
The largest importers in Q2 2025:
France - 5.6 million tons, which is equivalent to 20% of total imports.
Spain - 4.9 (17%).
Netherlands - 4.1 (15%).
Suppliers
The table “Monthly discharge volumes and source countries for LNG coming from outside Europe“ shows statistics on unloading of gas carriers at regasification terminals and in ports of the EU and the UK, with the exception of gas carriers loaded in the EU and the UK, with aggregation for the calendar month, the supplier country and all regasification terminals. The data is available from August 2022. 01.MM.YYYY - means deliveries for the entire calendar month starting on this day. Deliveries for the current month are indicated by a cumulative total from the first day of the month to the current date. The delay in receiving data is up to one day. The data is updated automatically.
USA
The United States is the leading supplier of LNG to the EU and the UK, which has been achieved by military and political methods since the beginning of the formation of the LNG industry in the United States. The share of total foreign imports has steadily exceeded 50% since 2022. LNG imports from the US to the EU and the UK are fairly stable after their rapid growth in 2022. The EU and the UK are critically dependent on the United States for energy.
As a result of the launch of new LNG facilities in the United States (Plaquemines, the third phase of Corpus Christi) and US trade deals with the UK and the EU, we should expect a further increase in the US share in the US gas market at the expense of Russia and Qatar, with the second priority.
Russia
Russia ranks the second in Q2 2025 despite the political attack on the Russian LNG industry by the European Commission, Eastern and Northern European countries and the United States that began in the second half of 2024. The main prohibitions include:
“Waiver” of obligations of French and Belgian regas terminals under its long-term LNG transshipment contracts with Novatek (so-called ban of Russian LNG transhipment and re-export).
Self ban for purchase of LNG from Arctic LNG-2 and pressure on third party countries.
Refusal to make payments for gas through Gazprombank, using SWIFT, and almost complete restrictions on transfers in dollars, euros, and rubles.
Refusal to use some Artic-class gas carriers.
Refusal of transshipment of LNG through the floating storage of Saam LNG.
Germany's nationalization of Gazprom Export's LNG business.
France, Spain and Belgium are key importers of Russian LNG.
France are imported 1463 kt of LNG in Q2 2025.It is import LNG under long-term contract of TotalEnergies with Yamal LNG (2.6 MTPA till 2032), where it also holds 20% share in Yamal LNG plant itself. Previously TotalEnergies defaulted on its obligation under long-term contract (equity entitlement) with Arctic LNG 2 (2 MTPA till 2044), where it holds 10% share. In case of more EU attacks on Russian LNG industry, further French defaults on gas contracts or within future settlement of 200+ bEUR debt of EU to Russia, TotalEnergies presumably could lost its 20% share of Yamal LNG and 10% of Artic LNG 2.
Spain imported 923 kt from Russia in Q2 2025. It imports under long-term contract of Naturgy with Yamal LNG (2.5 MTPA till 2043).
Russian share in EU LNG import in H1 2025 amounted to 15%. Some of these volumes will be re-exported further outside the EU. After the strengthening of bans on the re-export of Yamal gas from the ports of France and Belgium, it is reasonable to expect new logistics schemes and a formal reduction in the share of LNG from Russia in the EU and UK markets.
Qatar
Qatar is the number three supplier of LNG to the EU and the UK. Qatar is consistently increasing its penetration into the European gas market, including long-term lease of regasification facilities. Thus, Katarenergiya controls the supply chain from natural gas to wholesale gas sales in the countries of North-Western Europe. In fact, this strategy repeats Gazprom's previous strategy in the European market and, accordingly, has the same risks. One of these risks began to materialize in the fourth quarter - the European Commission, due to Qatar's non-subordination to Europe (the official wording, as always in Europe, is different - due to “non-compliance with environmental norms and social standards”), announced an additional tax (formally in the form of a fine) on LNG imports from Qatar in the amount of 5% of global revenue Cathartic energy. The EU had previously planned a similar scheme for gas from Russia (the official wording was based on something about environmental friendliness), but by the will of fate, the EU practically abandoned Russian gas altogether and simply started burning more coal. Interestingly, the European Commission boldly made a similar move to the United States, but they were simply told “No” in response, and the European Commission calmed down.
LNG re-export
After the destruction of Russian pipeline gas and other energy supplies from Russia, Europe has become a balancing (the terms “marginal“ and “closing“ are also used) region of the world in the LNG spot market. As a result, LNG supplies originally intended for European countries may be redirected outside the region.
The table “Europe monthly re-export volumes and destination countries“ shows statistics on the loading of gas carriers in EU and UK ports, with the exception of gas carriers shipped to the EU and the UK, with aggregation for a calendar month, the recipient country and all its regasification terminals. The data is from August 2022. 01.MM.YYYY - means deliveries for the entire calendar month starting on this day. Deliveries for the current month are indicated by a cumulative total from the first day of the month to the current date. The delay in receiving data is up to one day. The data is updated automatically.
Notes:
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