Сonsequences of attacks on Iranian South Pars and Qatari Ras Laffan LNG plant
Israel's March 18 attack on Iran's South Pars gas field and Iran's retaliatory strikes on Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG plant, which liquefies gas from the North Field, have significantly reduced the availability of gas in the Asian region.
As a result of the Israeli attack Iranian domestic gas and electricity consumers will suffer. Iran's domestic market is the fourth-largest in the world, after USA, China, and Russia - 265 billion cubic meters per year (BCMA). South Pars accounted for 70% of Iran's gas production (716 mcm/d as of June 2025). As of now there is no information what is remaining production rate and what will be recovery period. Gas-fired thermal power plants provided 86% of the country's electricity generation mix.
Iran has also halted gas exports to neighboring Iraq and Türkiye.
Iraq, which relied on Iran for 40% of its gas supply, will face an unsolvable problem during the upcoming heatwave. The country is expected to experience widespread power outages this summer.
Türkiye will be forced to increase its purchases of Russian pipeline gas (within the remaining pipeline capacity) and LNG on the international market. The ability to import additional volumes of Russian gas is limited by their current high utilization rate. There may be an optimization of the timing of summer repair campaigns for these gas pipelines. Russia is interested in increasing its gas supplies to Turkey. However, Ukraine, with the assistance of the United Kingdom and the United States, continues to attack the infrastructure of the Blue Stream and Turkish Stream pipelines. If these attacks are successful, Turkey may face a sudden energy crisis. The summer season is a low-demand period in the Turkish market. The peak is reached during the cold months of winter. This reduces the relevance of the global gas crisis for Turkey.
China, India, and Pakistan are the largest buyers of Qatari LNG. It is Asia that has been the key victim of the provocative Israeli attack.
In 2025, Qatar became the leading supplier of LNG to China.
Now, China will be forced to increase its purchases of Australian LNG. There is a chance that Chinese state-owned companies will open their terminals for LNG from the Arctic LNG 2 and Baltic medium-tonnage projects on a large scale. Similar discussions are taking place in the oil market regarding the admission of Russian "sanctioned" oil to the offshore terminals of state-owned oil companies.
Qatar provided 100% of LNG imports to Pakistan. At the same time, Pakistan faced the problem of excess supplies due to the compression of the domestic gas market. In recent years, Pakistan has penalized the supply of part of the Qatari LNG. Now the problem is the opposite - Pakistan is forced to find all the necessary volume in the spot (!) market. This creates crisis conditions for the poor Pakistani gas market.
Qatar has been a leading supplier of LNG to India.
LNG itself accounts for half of India's gas market (the rest is self-produced gas). India's energy system is predominantly coal-based and can withstand reduced gas supplies. However, the simultaneous decline in LNG, LPG, and oil supplies, coupled with rising energy import prices, places immense pressure on India's financial system. The rupee's exchange rate is currently being artificially maintained through the burning of gold and foreign currency reserves. The prolonged war in the Middle East will inevitably lead to a weakening of the rupee and further increases in local currency import prices. All of this leads to a collapse in gas demand, primarily from fertilizer producers.
USA is absolute winner from the strikes. They will take advantage of not only the extremely high LNG prices, but also the freed-up space for new LNG projects that are now being launched. Whatever Trump says, this Israeli blow has brought a lot of money to the US.
Russian LNG projects that have been blacklisted by the West may improve their position in the market. However, this is hindered by the lengthening of the logistics routes for exporting LNG from the Baltic and Yamal regions due to the freezing of the Arctic Ocean and the attacks by Ukraine and the United Kingdom on LNG carriers in the Mediterranean Sea, which is caused by a shortage of available gas carriers of both ice-class and non-ice-class. However, the situation will improve significantly with the opening of the summer navigation on the Northern Sea Route.
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